A recent report from the national security group of the Bipartisan Policy Center, which is led by several former members of the 9/11 Commission, indicates that although the terror threat faced by the United States is now more diverse and harder to detect, it is also less likely to produce attacks on the scale of 9/11. American citizens are now also some of the most likely perpetrators of attacks, particularly those who are recruited to receive training in areas like Yemen and the horn of Africa.

What's more, the report found that the government is currently not prepared to handle these types of attacks and that recent overreactions to even minor attempted attacks (particularly on Capitol Hill or in the media) fuel anti-American sentiment and encourage extremists. When discussing the government's lack of preparedness, the former commissioners cited the fact that no agency is specifically responsible for monitoring and stopping the recruitment of Americans by militants.

Additionally, the report identifies more and less likely targets and means of attack. More likely targets include commercial aviation, Western brand names like American hotel chains, Jewish targets, and U.S. soldiers fighting in Muslim countries. Potential tactics include suicide operations, attacks by gunmen in the model of the 2008 assault on Mumbai, India, and assassinations of key leaders. The group hopes its findings will encourage the U.S. government to focus more of its limited resources on the most likely attack scenarios.